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Active model signals 4 live · as of 01 Jul 2026
Every NGX stock the composite model currently rates Conviction Buy. Each card shows when the model first flagged the name (entry date), days held since, current composite, and what happened to the stock 5 days after entry.
Sector: Consumer Goods
Model entry: 01 Jul 2026 (1d held)
Entry price: ₦170.10Current: ₦170.10 +0.0%
5d after entry: —
Vitafoam's 40.2% ROE and 13.7% net margin—both outpacing sector peers—combined with a valuation discount (14.5x P/E vs. 19.9x median) justify the Conviction Buy rating, anchored on quality compounder fundamentals. The stock's 74% premium to its 200-day moving average presents the primary near-term risk; monitor whether elevated technicals compress on any macro headwinds or earnings misses.
Stretched — 74% above 200d MA
Sector: HealthCare
Model entry: 30 Jun 2026 (2d held)
Entry price: ₦36.00Current: ₦37.00 +2.8%
5d after entry: —
MAYBAKER trades at a 64% discount to sector P/E (14.2x vs. 39.1x median) while delivering near-sector-average ROE of 30.6%, signaling significant valuation upside. Monitor whether the company can sustain its 9.7% FCF yield and 12.3% net margin as it scales, since Technical scores lag at 60th percentile.
No flags
Sector: ICT
Model entry: 30 Jun 2026 (2d held)
Entry price: ₦19.25Current: ₦18.25 -5.2%
5d after entry: —
CWG trades at a 9.2x P/E versus a 52.7x sector median while generating 47.9% ROE—a rare combination of valuation attractiveness and exceptional profitability that drives the 76.1/100 composite score. Monitor liquidity closely: the ₦21.6M daily average creates meaningful execution risk for institutional positions, particularly given negative FCF yield of -6.3%.
Moderate liquidity — 30d ADV ≈ ₦21.6M
Sector: Oil & Gas
Model entry: 29 Jun 2026 (3d held)
Entry price: ₦1,341.00Current: ₦1,275.80 -4.9%
5d after entry: —
Aradel's quality signal dominates: 41.6% ROE and 64% net margin far exceed sector medians (13.4% and implied lower), supported by a 96/100 financials score and 12.9% FCF yield. Monitor whether the 0.94x debt-to-equity ratio remains sustainable as leverage approaches parity, given the sector's cyclicality.
No flags
Recently closed signals last 60 days · 15 shown
Transparency: every stock that left the Conviction Buy band recently and what its 4-week return was from the model's original entry date. The same data feeds the full Track Record →.
| Symbol | Sector | Entry date | Entry price | Exit date | Exit price | Price change | Days held | 4w return from entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | Services | 30 Jun 2026 | ₦27.00 | 01 Jul 2026 | ₦26.20 | -3.0% | 1d | — |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 24 Jun 2026 | ₦317.80 | 29 Jun 2026 | ₦300.00 | -5.6% | 3d | — |
| MTNN | ICT | 22 Jun 2026 | ₦830.00 | 30 Jun 2026 | ₦710.00 | -14.5% | 8d | — |
| TIP | Services | 19 Jun 2026 | ₦28.90 | 29 Jun 2026 | ₦27.30 | -5.5% | 8d | — |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 19 Jun 2026 | ₦189.00 | 22 Jun 2026 | — | — | 1d | — |
| MTNN | ICT | 11 Jun 2026 | ₦801.50 | 19 Jun 2026 | ₦800.00 | -0.2% | 8d | — |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 08 Jun 2026 | ₦46.90 | 25 Jun 2026 | ₦36.00 | -23.2% | 17d | — |
| TIP | Services | 05 Jun 2026 | ₦28.90 | 18 Jun 2026 | ₦28.55 | -1.2% | 13d | — |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 05 Jun 2026 | ₦329.00 | 22 Jun 2026 | ₦316.00 | -4.0% | 15d | — |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 02 Jun 2026 | ₦325.10 | 03 Jun 2026 | ₦325.10 | +0.0% | 1d | -8.6% |
| UPDCREIT | Construction/Real Estate | 02 Jun 2026 | ₦11.70 | 30 Jun 2026 | ₦9.45 | -19.2% | 28d | -23.1% |
| TIP | Services | 01 Jun 2026 | ₦31.15 | 02 Jun 2026 | ₦33.50 | +7.5% | 1d | -13.3% |
| MTNN | ICT | 25 May 2026 | ₦818.70 | 05 Jun 2026 | ₦793.20 | -3.1% | 11d | -8.4% |
| TRANSCORP | Conglomerates | 20 May 2026 | ₦49.65 | 26 May 2026 | ₦46.00 | -7.4% | 6d | -16.4% |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 19 May 2026 | ₦54.10 | 26 May 2026 | ₦47.95 | -11.4% | 7d | -26.1% |
How the model decides
- Composite ≥ 75 → Conviction Buy (the "signal"). 5 names typical.
- 60–74 → Accumulate. Watchlist candidates.
- 40–59 → Neutral. No view.
- < 40 → Avoid. Model is bearish.
- Composite = 0.40 × Valuation pillar + 0.35 × Financials + 0.25 × Technical, all percentile-ranked within sector.
- Backtest evidence — Conviction Buy historically delivered an 83% hit rate at 4 weeks vs Avoid at 22%, with a 29 pp basket outperformance over benchmark. See Track Record for the full picture.
Research output. Not personalised investment advice. Verify suitability and consult a licensed adviser before any trade.