The Track Record
Every Conviction Buy signal the model has ever flagged, with the 4-week forward return measured from the model's original entry date. No cherry-picking. Filter by status; sort any column. This is the page subscribers will want to see before paying.
Total signals flagged
50
since model start
Currently active
4
live Conviction Buys
Closed signals
46
with measurable outcomes
4-week win rate
62.9%
positive 20d forward return
Avg 4-week return
+9.7%
from entry, n=35
Headline
Over the available out-of-sample period, the Conviction Buy basket has outperformed the equal-weighted all-universe NGX benchmark by +26.5 percentage points. Below is every historical signal and the 4-week forward return from the model's entry date — winners and losers, no curation.
Tier hit rate by forward horizon
Does the model separate winners from losers? Clean monotonic ordering (Conviction Buy > Accumulate > Neutral > Avoid) at every horizon = yes.
Cumulative basket return weekly rebalance, equal weight
Conviction Buy basket vs investable subset vs all-universe NGX benchmark, equal-weighted, non-overlapping 5-day holds.
Every historical signal 50 signals · 35 with measurable 4w outcome
Filter by status, sort by any column. Sortable by entry date (default desc), composite at entry, or forward returns. The 4-week return is forward-looking from the entry date — fair backtest measurement.
Showing 50
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit / Current | Price change | Days | Composite | 5d return | 10d return | 4w return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-07-01 | — | ₦170.10 | ₦170.10 (now) | +0.0% | 1d | 75.3 | — | — | — | Active | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-06-30 | — | ₦36.00 | ₦37.00 (now) | +2.8% | 2d | 77.8 | — | — | — | Active | |
| CWG | ICT | 2026-06-30 | — | ₦19.25 | ₦18.25 (now) | -5.2% | 2d | 75.5 | — | — | — | Active | |
| TIP | Services | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-01 | ₦27.00 | ₦26.20 (exit) | -3.0% | 1d | 75.2 | — | — | — | Closed | |
| ARADEL | Oil & Gas | 2026-06-29 | — | ₦1,341.00 | ₦1,275.80 (now) | -4.9% | 3d | 76.4 | — | — | — | Active | |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-29 | ₦317.80 | ₦300.00 (exit) | -5.6% | 3d | 75.3 | -6.5% | — | — | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-30 | ₦830.00 | ₦710.00 (exit) | -14.5% | 8d | 75.6 | -10.0% | — | — | Closed | |
| TIP | Services | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-29 | ₦28.90 | ₦27.30 (exit) | -5.5% | 8d | 77.5 | +2.1% | — | — | Closed | |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-22 | ₦189.00 | — (exit) | — | 1d | 75.8 | -10.0% | — | — | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-19 | ₦801.50 | ₦800.00 (exit) | -0.2% | 8d | 75.1 | -0.2% | -6.3% | — | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-25 | ₦46.90 | ₦36.00 (exit) | -23.2% | 17d | 85.2 | — | -14.7% | — | Closed | |
| TIP | Services | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-18 | ₦28.90 | ₦28.55 (exit) | -1.2% | 13d | 75.7 | +9.9% | -1.4% | — | Closed | |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-22 | ₦329.00 | ₦316.00 (exit) | -4.0% | 15d | 76.0 | -1.1% | -4.0% | — | Closed | |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-03 | ₦325.10 | ₦325.10 (exit) | +0.0% | 1d | 75.4 | +0.1% | +1.5% | -8.6% | Closed | |
| UPDCREIT | Construction/Real Estate | 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-30 | ₦11.70 | ₦9.45 (exit) | -19.2% | 28d | 75.1 | -0.9% | -10.3% | -23.1% | Closed | |
| TIP | Services | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-02 | ₦31.15 | ₦33.50 (exit) | +7.5% | 1d | 75.4 | +3.2% | -1.0% | -13.3% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-05-25 | 2026-06-05 | ₦818.70 | ₦793.20 (exit) | -3.1% | 11d | 75.5 | -1.4% | -2.0% | -8.4% | Closed | |
| TRANSCORP | Conglomerates | 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-26 | ₦49.65 | ₦46.00 (exit) | -7.4% | 6d | 78.5 | -7.4% | -11.4% | -16.4% | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | ₦54.10 | ₦47.95 (exit) | -11.4% | 7d | 81.0 | -11.4% | -7.6% | -26.1% | Closed | |
| CWG | ICT | 2026-05-19 | 2026-06-02 | ₦23.35 | ₦21.60 (exit) | -7.5% | 14d | 77.6 | -2.1% | -7.5% | -11.6% | Closed | |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | ₦177.00 | ₦177.50 (exit) | +0.3% | 7d | 77.0 | +0.3% | -0.6% | +6.8% | Closed | |
| CWG | ICT | 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-18 | ₦23.10 | ₦22.50 (exit) | -2.6% | 3d | 75.9 | -1.3% | -1.5% | — | Closed | |
| GTCO | Financial Services | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-18 | ₦151.95 | ₦146.00 (exit) | -3.9% | 4d | 75.8 | -3.9% | -8.2% | -10.6% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-25 | — | ₦125.00 (exit) | — | 12d | 75.5 | — | — | — | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-22 | ₦815.00 | ₦819.00 (exit) | +0.5% | 15d | 75.4 | +2.5% | -0.7% | -1.5% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | ₦103.00 | — (exit) | — | 1d | 75.1 | +21.0% | +19.3% | +19.3% | Closed | |
| UPDCREIT | Construction/Real Estate | 2026-05-07 | 2026-06-01 | ₦8.00 | ₦10.50 (exit) | +31.2% | 23d | 77.6 | +48.1% | +30.0% | +30.0% | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-13 | ₦44.00 | — (exit) | — | 9d | 82.0 | — | +37.9% | +32.6% | Closed | |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-07 | ₦170.50 | ₦186.00 (exit) | +9.1% | 2d | 77.8 | — | +15.3% | +13.6% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-04-27 | 2026-05-04 | ₦99.50 | ₦98.70 (exit) | -0.8% | 4d | 75.3 | +3.5% | +25.2% | +23.5% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-23 | ₦100.00 | ₦100.00 (exit) | +0.0% | 1d | 75.5 | -1.3% | — | +25.0% | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-04-21 | 2026-04-29 | ₦38.00 | ₦37.90 (exit) | -0.3% | 7d | 83.1 | -0.3% | +13.0% | +23.9% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-20 | ₦755.00 | ₦820.50 (exit) | +8.7% | 2d | 76.3 | +8.5% | +10.7% | +8.6% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-21 | ₦98.50 | ₦100.00 (exit) | +1.5% | 6d | 77.9 | +1.5% | +0.2% | +39.0% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-14 | ₦745.00 | ₦729.00 (exit) | -2.1% | 1d | 75.4 | +10.1% | +10.0% | +12.1% | Closed | |
| UPDCREIT | Construction/Real Estate | 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-23 | ₦7.65 | ₦7.55 (exit) | -1.3% | 10d | 76.3 | +1.3% | -0.7% | +54.9% | Closed | |
| ARADEL | Oil & Gas | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-13 | ₦1,217.00 | ₦1,279.00 (exit) | +5.1% | 2d | 75.7 | +27.2% | +38.0% | +65.1% | Closed | |
| UPDCREIT | Construction/Real Estate | 2026-04-02 | 2026-04-07 | ₦7.70 | ₦7.70 (exit) | +0.0% | 1d | 76.7 | -0.6% | +0.6% | +3.9% | Closed | |
| WEMABANK | Financial Services | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-02 | ₦26.20 | ₦26.05 (exit) | -0.6% | 2d | 75.7 | -0.6% | +5.2% | +15.8% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-09 | ₦760.00 | ₦745.00 (exit) | -2.0% | 9d | 77.7 | -2.0% | -0.7% | +10.0% | Closed | |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-08 | ₦107.00 | ₦106.20 (exit) | -0.7% | 12d | 78.3 | -0.7% | +10.3% | +40.2% | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-08 | ₦41.50 | ₦34.20 (exit) | -17.6% | 12d | 89.8 | -17.6% | -16.1% | -8.7% | Closed | |
| VITAFOAM | Consumer Goods | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-23 | ₦114.80 | ₦114.50 (exit) | -0.3% | 3d | 80.7 | -2.3% | -7.5% | +5.4% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-26 | ₦798.00 | ₦718.90 (exit) | -9.9% | 10d | 75.3 | -10.1% | -6.6% | +3.4% | Closed | |
| MAYBAKER | HealthCare | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-23 | ₦37.75 | ₦41.70 (exit) | +10.5% | 9d | 88.5 | +12.1% | +9.9% | -7.8% | Closed | |
| MTNN | ICT | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-05 | ₦790.00 | ₦795.00 (exit) | +0.6% | 1d | 75.2 | -1.6% | -6.3% | -5.7% | Closed | |
| WAPCO | Industrial Goods | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | ₦206.90 | ₦200.00 (exit) | -3.3% | 5d | 79.2 | -3.3% | +4.9% | +8.1% | Closed | |
| TIP | Services | 2026-02-16 | 2026-05-25 | ₦20.90 | ₦30.45 (exit) | +45.7% | 96d | 82.8 | -16.0% | -11.0% | -9.1% | Closed | |
| FIDSON | HealthCare | 2026-02-16 | 2026-03-10 | ₦73.00 | ₦94.00 (exit) | +28.8% | 22d | 81.8 | +28.8% | +11.0% | +39.7% | Closed | |
| ARADEL | Oil & Gas | 2026-02-16 | 2026-03-09 | ₦1,090.00 | ₦1,330.00 (exit) | +22.0% | 19d | 77.2 | -5.5% | +9.4% | +10.6% | Closed |
Honest caveats
- Preliminary backtest — measured over ~4 months of out-of-sample data. Results are directional, not statistically definitive. Re-running quarterly.
- NGX tape was supportive — the period covers a generally rising NGX. Absolute returns are inflated; the tier monotonicity (CB > Accumulate > Neutral > Avoid) is the more robust signal.
- Naira inflation — nominal NGN returns include ~10-15% inflation in this window. Real returns are lower than headline.
- Concentration risk — the CB basket is small (3-5 names typical). Returns are volatile; a single name can swing weekly numbers materially.
- Survivorship & liquidity — the model excludes names that fail the ₦5M ADV liquidity gate. Returns shown are for tradeable positions.
- Research output. Not personalised investment advice. Verify suitability and consult a licensed adviser before any trade.