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Read the daily brief — tier changes since yesterday, movers, macro snapshot, fresh news. Done in 60 seconds.
Headline at-a-glance
Current week + backtest. Drill into the three sections below.
Conviction Buy
4
composite ≥ 75
Accumulate
27
composite 60–74
Universe scored
156
listed equities
CB · 4w hit rate
63.3%
4-month backtest
Basket outperformance
+26.5 pp
vs benchmark, 16 weeks
AI Market Pulse
Regulatory tightening dominated sentiment this week as the CBN's closure of 46 microfinance banks underscored persistent compliance risks across the financial system, while concurrent market weakness—the NGX's N2.35 trillion loss—pressured broad valuations. The model's median composite of 54.1 reflects this caution, with HealthCare and Natural Resources commanding the highest average scores despite limited investable depth. Monitor Oil & Gas positioning closely as energy sector dynamics intersect with FG fiscal initiatives and potential policy shifts from the pending political office holders' pay review.
This Week's Conviction Buy 4 names · click any name
Cards show stock, our style classification, quality score (0-5), and the lead insight bullet.
Trades at P/E 14.2x — about 60% below the HealthCare median of 35.2x.
HealthCare · ADV ₦150.0M
Free cash flow yield of 12.9% — strong cash generation relative to market cap.
Oil & Gas · ADV ₦2.03B
Trades at P/E 9.2x — about 83% below the ICT median of 52.7x.
ICT · ADV ₦21.6M
Trades at P/E 14.5x — about 27% below the Consumer Goods median of 19.9x.
Consumer Goods · ADV ₦86.8M
Investable Universe 31 names · sort + filter
Every Conviction Buy + Accumulate name. Sort by any column. Filter by sector, tier, or style. Click symbol for the full research page.
Showing 31 names
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Tier | Style | Composite | V | F | T | Quality | ADV (₦) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAYBAKER | May & Baker Nigeria Plc | HealthCare | Conviction Buy | Neutral | 77.8 | 94 | 72 | 60 | 4/5 | ₦150.0M |
| ARADEL | Aradel Holdings Plc | Oil & Gas | Conviction Buy | Quality Compounder | 76.8 | 64 | 96 | 70 | 5/5 | ₦2.03B |
| CWG | CWG Plc | ICT | Conviction Buy | Neutral | 76.1 | 84 | 68 | 75 | 3/5 | ₦21.6M |
| VITAFOAM | Vitafoam Nigeria Plc | Consumer Goods | Conviction Buy | Quality Compounder | 75.3 | 65 | 77 | 90 | 5/5 | ₦86.8M |
| WAPCO | Lafarge Africa Plc | Industrial Goods | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 74.5 | 67 | 87 | 69 | 5/5 | ₦2.31B |
| FIDSON | Fidson Healthcare Plc | HealthCare | Accumulate | Neutral | 74.3 | 86 | 60 | 76 | 5/5 | ₦40.6M |
| TIP | The Initiates Plc | Services | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 74.1 | 73 | 86 | 58 | 5/5 | ₦153.0M |
| MTNN | MTN Nigeria Communications Plc | ICT | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 72.5 | 69 | 82 | 65 | 4/5 | ₦2.08B |
| UPDCREIT | UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust | Construction/Real Estate | Accumulate | Neutral | 72.4 | 75 | 71 | 70 | 5/5 | ₦10.6M |
| ZENITHBANK | Zenith International Bank Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 71.8 | 73 | 75 | 64 | 5/5 | ₦7.08B |
| TRANSCORP | Transnational Corporation Of Nigeria Plc | Conglomerates | Accumulate | Neutral | 68.8 | 72 | 80 | 48 | 5/5 | ₦92.2M |
| GTCO | Guaranty Trust Bank Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 68.1 | 60 | 80 | 64 | 5/5 | ₦9.08B |
| FCMB | FCMB Group Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Deep Value | 66.9 | 88 | 56 | 49 | 4/5 | ₦369.5M |
| CONOIL | Conoil Plc | Oil & Gas | Accumulate | Momentum Breakout | 66.8 | 66 | 61 | 77 | 4/5 | ₦9.0M |
| HONYFLOUR | Honeywell Flour Mill Plc | Consumer Goods | Accumulate | Deep Value | 65.9 | 97 | 53 | 34 | 3/5 | ₦16.8M |
| AIICO | AIICO Insurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Neutral | 65.9 | 71 | 60 | 65 | 4/5 | ₦148.6M |
| PRESCO | Presco Plc | Agriculture | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 65.3 | 52 | 80 | 67 | 5/5 | ₦168.7M |
| CORNERST | Cornerstone Insurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Momentum Breakout | 65.1 | 55 | 66 | 80 | 3/5 | ₦5.2M |
| MBENEFIT | Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Neutral | 65.1 | 79 | 72 | 34 | 3/5 | ₦77.3M |
| CONHALLPLC | Consolidated Hallmark Insurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Momentum Breakout | 63.6 | 55 | 65 | 76 | 4/5 | ₦16.1M |
| LINKASSURE | Linkage Assurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Neutral | 63.3 | 71 | 62 | 53 | 3/5 | ₦502.5M |
| WEMABANK | Wema Bank Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Neutral | 63.0 | 61 | 81 | 41 | 5/5 | ₦2.38B |
| UNIVINSURE | Universal Insurance Plc | Financial Services | Accumulate | Neutral | 62.0 | 75 | 71 | 28 | 3/5 | ₦14.1M |
| BETAGLAS | Beta Glass Plc | Industrial Goods | Accumulate | Deep Value | 62.0 | 80 | 48 | 54 | 3/5 | ₦12.1M |
| NAHCO | Nigerian Aviation Handling Company Plc | Services | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 61.7 | 50 | 82 | 53 | 4/5 | ₦429.5M |
| BERGER | Berger Paints Plc | Industrial Goods | Accumulate | Momentum Breakout | 61.6 | 53 | 58 | 80 | 4/5 | ₦142.3M |
| NASCON | NASCON Allied Industries Plc | Consumer Goods | Accumulate | Quality Compounder | 61.3 | 46 | 74 | 68 | 5/5 | ₦446.7M |
| CHAMS | Chams Plc | ICT | Accumulate | Momentum Breakout | 61.2 | 63 | 46 | 80 | 2/5 | ₦61.6M |
| DANGCEM | Dangote Cement Plc | Industrial Goods | Accumulate | Neutral | 61.0 | 71 | 70 | 32 | 4/5 | ₦1.30B |
| FTNCOCOA | FTN Cocoa Processors Plc | Agriculture | Accumulate | Neutral | 61.0 | 52 | 68 | 65 | 4/5 | ₦10.0M |
| NB | Nigerian Breweries Plc | Consumer Goods | Accumulate | Neutral | 60.9 | 72 | 58 | 48 | 4/5 | ₦1.51B |
Style legend
How we classify each opportunity. Triage tool, not a forecast.
Super StockSuper StockQuality CompounderQuality CompounderDeep ValueDeep ValueMomentum BreakoutMomentum BreakoutRecovery PlayRecovery PlayValue TrapValue TrapFalling StarFalling StarNeutralNeutral
Super Stock — strong across Valuation, Financials, and Technical (rare).
Quality Compounder — high-quality business at a reasonable price, with momentum.
Deep Value — statistically cheap, decent quality, technical hasn't caught on yet.
Momentum Breakout — trending strongly, fundamentals not yet stretched.
Recovery Play — was Avoid/Neutral; signals are turning.
Value Trap — cheap on multiples but underlying business is weak.
Falling Star — multiple pillars deteriorating.
Quality Compounder — high-quality business at a reasonable price, with momentum.
Deep Value — statistically cheap, decent quality, technical hasn't caught on yet.
Momentum Breakout — trending strongly, fundamentals not yet stretched.
Recovery Play — was Avoid/Neutral; signals are turning.
Value Trap — cheap on multiples but underlying business is weak.
Falling Star — multiple pillars deteriorating.
Last 30 Days tier dynamics
How the tier composition has evolved over the past 30 daily snapshots.
Sector heatmap this week
Darker blue = stronger sector by average composite score.
| Sector | Avg composite | Median | N names | N investable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HealthCare | 60.6 | 56.8 | 5 | 2 |
| Natural Resources | 60.1 | 60.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Conglomerates | 60.0 | 59.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Oil & Gas | 58.8 | 58.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Agriculture | 56.2 | 59.4 | 5 | 2 |
| ICT | 55.9 | 53.6 | 7 | 3 |
| Industrial Goods | 54.0 | 60.0 | 10 | 4 |
| Construction/Real Estate | 53.7 | 54.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Services | 53.0 | 49.7 | 18 | 2 |
| Consumer Goods | 52.9 | 56.5 | 17 | 4 |
| Financial Services | 51.4 | 51.5 | 37 | 10 |
| CONGLOMERATES | 35.8 | 35.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Utilities | 26.5 | 26.5 | 1 | 0 |
Recent NGX news last 14 days
From Nairametrics, BusinessDay, The Cable, Reuters Africa, CNBC. Tagged with NGX symbol mentions.
Backtest headline 4-month preliminary
~14 non-overlapping weekly observations. Directional, not statistically definitive. Re-run quarterly.
Conviction Buy · 4w hit rate
63.3%
mean +11.18%, n=218
Accumulate · 4w hit rate
47.8%
mean +3.89%, n=1373
Neutral · 4w hit rate
41.8%
mean +2.32%, n=1374
Avoid · 4w hit rate
16.4%
mean -5.40%, n=232
Tier hit rate by horizon
Does the model separate winners from losers? Monotonic Conviction Buy > Accumulate > Neutral > Avoid = yes.
Cumulative basket return
Conviction Buy basket vs investable subset vs all-universe NGX benchmark. Equal-weighted, non-overlapping 5-day holds.
Drawdown CB basket
Peak-to-trough decline since inception.
All-time Conviction Buy archive
Every name that has appeared in the CB basket and how many weeks it stayed. Click a symbol for the full research page.
| Symbol | Weeks as CB | First appeared | Last appeared |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | 14 | 16 Feb 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| MTNN | 8 | 23 Mar 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| UPDCREIT | 8 | 15 Apr 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| MAYBAKER | 8 | 12 Mar 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| FIDSON | 7 | 16 Feb 2026 | 19 May 2026 |
| ARADEL | 3 | 16 Feb 2026 | 05 Mar 2026 |
| VITAFOAM | 3 | 30 Mar 2026 | 19 May 2026 |
| CWG | 2 | 19 May 2026 | 26 May 2026 |
| WAPCO | 2 | 05 Mar 2026 | 15 Jun 2026 |
| GTCO | 1 | 12 May 2026 | 12 May 2026 |